Have you ever watched the TV show Ancient Aliens on the History Channel? It’s a fantastic and highly entertaining example of confirmation bias.
The premise of the show is that many historical events, advances in technology, and ancient structures are evidence that extraterrestrials have visited and influenced events on Earth. The show speculates that everything from pyramids to the Incan Ruins and the Mayan calendar were created as a result of alien intervention.
Each episode also features one or more “Ancient Alien Theorists” who explain how they came to their conclusions. This is where it gets fun. The statements that you hear most often are: “With the technology and manpower they had in those days, it would have been impossible to build this, so clearly aliens built it.”
In one of my favorite episodes, an Ancient Alien Theorist says “As you can see in this cave drawing, the person is clearly in a space shuttle. See the pedal here?” I didn’t see it. It was anything but clear to me.
We see what we want to see.
The show is a case study in the critical thinking error known as confirmation bias. In essence, confirmation bias is the tendency to favor information that supports your beliefs or hypotheses. In the case of the show Ancient Aliens, the theorists jump from questions surrounding the mystery of an item to the conclusion that it was the result of alien intervention (i.e. “Why would someone put these heavy rocks in a straight line if not to create a space ship’s landing strip?”) In other words, I can’t explain it, so it must be extraterrestrial.
While in life we often rely on working hypotheses to get through the day, there is danger in holding firmly to a hypothesis despite evidence to the contrary. We have to be careful to pay attention to evidence that contradicts our beliefs. It is always helpful to ask someone who is unbiased to check your assumptions. Perhaps the Ancient Alien Theorist could have asked an outsider what he/she saw in the cave drawings before concluding that it was clear evidence of a spaceship.
When we have a strong belief, that is the time we are the most vulnerable to confirmation bias.
- Am I actively and fairly evaluating evidence that contradicts my belief?
- Am I letting my emotions control my thoughts?
- Have I played the role of Devil’s Advocate with my own theories?
- Have I asked a trusted critical thinker to help me see an opposing point of view?
- Am I treating facts as opinions, and vice versa?
- Have I checked the credibility of my sources?
- Did I form an opinion before I researched the facts?
These questions will help you avoid the confirmation bias trap and lead you toward more effective thinking.
What examples of confirmation bias have you seen lately?
Editor’s Note: Breanne Harris is the Solutions Architect for Pearson TalentLens. She works with customers to design selection and development plans that incorporate critical thinking assessments and training. She has a Master’s degree in Organizational Psychology and has experience in recruiting, training, and HR consulting. Connect with her on LinkedIn and Twitter for more of her thoughts.
